Baccarat offers three main betting options plus various side bets. While the game itself is simple, understanding the math behind each bet helps you make informed choices about where to place your money. The differences in house edge between baccarat bets are significant. Choosing the right bet won't guarantee wins, but it does minimize how much you can expect to lose over time. Choosing the wrong bet can double or even ten-times your expected losses. This guide breaks down every baccarat bet type, explains the odds and payouts, and shows you which bets offer the best value.
The Three Main Bets
Baccarat's three core betting options are where you should focus your attention.
Banker Bet
What it is: Betting that the Banker hand will be closer to 9 than the Player hand
Payout: 1:1 minus 5% commission - Bet $100, win $95 (plus get your $100 back for $195 total)
Win probability:- 45.86% (slightly less than 50% because ties reduce total winning outcomes)
House edge: 1.06%
Why the commission exists:The Banker hand wins slightly more often than the Player hand (50.68% vs 49.32% when ties are excluded) due to the third card drawing rules. The 5% commission balances this statistical advantage.
The math:Even after the 5% commission, the Banker bet has the lowest house edge in baccarat, making it the mathematically best choice.
When players use it:Anyone who understands the math. Experienced players almost exclusively bet on Banker.
Player Bet
What it is: Betting that the Player hand will be closer to 9 than the Banker hand
Payout: 1:1 (even money, no commission) - Bet $100, win $100 (plus get your $100 back for $200 total)
Win probability: 44.62%
House edge: 1.24%
Why it's slightly worse:The Player hand wins less frequently than the Banker hand due to the game's draw rules. Without a commission to adjust for this imbalance, the house edge is slightly higher.
The difference:1.24% vs 1.06% might seem small, but over thousands of hands, it adds up. That said, both are excellent compared to most casino games.
When players use it:- Players who prefer the simplicity of no commission - Players rotating between Banker and Player for variety - Players who don't realize the Banker bet is mathematically better For more on how house edge works, see our guide on [house edge in baccarat](#).
Tie Bet
What it is: Betting that both hands will have the exact same total
Payout: Usually 8:1 (sometimes 9:1) - Bet $100 at 8:1, win $800 (plus get your $100 back for $900 total)
Win probability: 9.52% (roughly 1 in 10.5 hands)
House edge:- At 8:1 payout: 14.36% - At 9:1 payout: 4.84%
Why it's a bad bet:The payout doesn't match the actual probability. Even at the better 9:1 payout, the house edge is still worse than Player or Banker bets.
Example of the math:Ties occur about 9.52% of the time. To be mathematically fair at 8:1 odds, ties would need to occur about 11.1% of the time. The mismatch creates the massive house edge.
When players use it:- Chasing big payouts - Not understanding the math - Making small "just for fun" bets alongside main bets
Recommendation: Avoid Tie bets completely. The house edge is terrible compared to the main game.
Common Side Bets
Many baccarat tables offer additional side bets. These typically have worse odds than the main game.
Player Pair / Banker Pair
What it is: Bet that the first two cards dealt to the Player or Banker will be a pair (same rank)
Payout: Usually 11:1
Win probability: Approximately 7.5%
House edge: Approximately 10.36%
Why it's bad:The payout doesn't match the true odds. This is a significantly worse bet than the main game.
Perfect Pair
What it is: Bet that the first two cards dealt to either hand will be an exact pair (same rank and suit)
Payout: Usually 25:1
Win probability: Much lower than regular pairs
House edge: Varies, but typically 10-15%
Dragon Bonus
What it is: Bet that your chosen hand (Player or Banker) will win by a specific margin
Payout: Varies based on the winning margin - Natural win (8 or 9 with first two cards): 1:1 - Win by 4-9 points: Higher payouts (up to 30:1)
House edge: Approximately 2.65-9.37% depending on the specific variant
Why it's worse:While some Dragon Bonus variants have lower house edges than other side bets, they're still worse than the standard Banker or Player bets.
Lucky Bonus (Banker Natural Win)
What it is: Bet that the Banker hand will win with a natural 8 or 9
Payout: Varies by table
House edge: Typically 5-10%
Commission-Free Baccarat
Some casinos offer "No Commission Baccarat" where Banker bets don't incur the 5% commission.
How it works:Banker bets usually pay 1:1 with one exception: when the Banker wins with a total of 6, the payout is reduced to 1:2 (you only win half your bet).
Example:Bet $100 on Banker: - Banker wins with 7, 8, or 9: You win $100 - Banker wins with 6: You win $50 - Banker wins with any other total: You win $100
The math:This rule change increases the Banker bet house edge from 1.06% to approximately 1.46%.
Is it better?No. Standard baccarat with 5% commission is mathematically better. The "no commission" version just shifts the cost in a less obvious way.
Why casinos offer it:- "No commission" sounds more attractive to players - The higher house edge benefits the casino - Many players don't realize it's actually worse
Recommendation: Stick to standard baccarat with the 5% commission on Banker bets.
EZ Baccarat
EZ Baccarat is a variant similar to commission-free baccarat:
Rules:- No commission on Banker wins - Banker wins with a three-card total of 7 results in a push (tie) instead of a win
House edge: Approximately 1.02% on Banker bet
Is it better?Slightly better than commission-free baccarat, but still not quite as good as standard baccarat with 5% commission.
Side bets in EZ Baccarat:EZ Baccarat usually offers side bets like "Dragon 7" (Banker wins with three-card 7) with huge payouts but terrible house edges (7.6% or higher).
Super 6 Baccarat
Another commission-free variant:
Rules:- No commission on most Banker wins - Banker wins with a total of 6 pay 1:2 instead of 1:1
House edge: Similar to commission-free baccarat (approximately 1.46%)
Additional "Super 6" side bet:You can bet specifically on the Banker winning with 6, which pays higher odds but has a high house edge.
Which Bets Should You Make?
From a purely mathematical perspective:
Best bet: Banker (1.06% house edge)
Second best: Player (1.24% house edge)
Avoid: Everything else
Specifically avoid:- Tie bets (14.36% house edge) - Pair side bets (10%+ house edge) - Most other side bets (3-15% house edge)
The reality:Both Banker and Player are excellent bets compared to most casino games. The difference between 1.06% and 1.24% is small. If you prefer the simplicity of no commission, betting Player is perfectly reasonable.
What about variety?Some players alternate between Banker and Player for variety or follow patterns (which don't actually work — see below). As long as you avoid Tie and side bets, you're playing about as well as possible. For more on baccarat strategy, see our article on [baccarat strategies: what works and what doesn't](#).
Pattern Recognition and Card Tracking
Many baccarat tables display past results on electronic scoreboards showing patterns of Player and Banker wins.
The truth:Past results don't predict future outcomes. Each hand is independent and random. Patterns are coincidence, not meaningful signals.
Why casinos provide scoreboards:Players find pattern tracking interesting and enjoyable. It creates engagement without changing the math. Casinos profit from this behavior because players who believe in patterns often make larger bets based on false confidence.
The math:If past results could predict future hands, casinos would lose money and change the game. The fact that baccarat remains profitable for casinos proves that pattern tracking doesn't work.
Calculating Expected Loss
Understanding expected loss helps you budget and set realistic expectations.
Formula:Expected loss = (Total wagered) × (House edge)
Example 1: Banker bet- Play 100 hands at $20 per hand - Total wagered: $2,000 - House edge: 1.06% - Expected loss: $2,000 × 0.0106 = $21.20
Example 2: Tie bet- Play 100 hands at $20 per hand - Total wagered: $2,000 - House edge: 14.36% - Expected loss: $2,000 × 0.1436 = $287.20 The difference is dramatic. Avoiding Tie bets saves you a significant amount over time.
Important note:Expected loss is a long-term average. You could win or lose more in any single session. Variance creates short-term swings.